Objectives: The objectives of this study were to estimate the utilization and spending impact of a standardized complex care management program implemented at 5 Next Generation accountable care organizations (NGACOs) and to identify reproducible program features that influenced program effectiveness.
Study Design: In 2016 and 2017, high-risk Medicare beneficiaries aligned to 5 geographically diverse NGACOs were identified using predictive analytics for enrollment in a standardized complex care management program. We estimated the program’s impact on all-cause inpatient admissions, emergency department visits, and total medical expenditures (TME) relative to a matched cohort of nonparticipants. In a subanalysis, we studied the modifying effects of intervention fidelity on program impact.
Methods: We created 1897 propensity score—matched case-control pairs based on preprogram similarities in disease profile, predictive risk score, medical cost, and utilization. Changes in outcomes 6 months post program were measured using difference-in-differences analyses. We used principal components analysis to identify program features associated with reduced inpatient admissions, classified cases according to intervention fidelity, and measured postprogram changes in TME for each subgroup.
Results: Program participation was associated with a 21% reduction in all-cause inpatient admissions (P = .03) and a 22% reduction in TME (P = .02) 6 months after program completion. Relative spending reductions were 2.1 times greater for high-fidelity interventions compared with overall program participation (P < .001).